C O N T E N T S
METHODOLOGY OF POPULATION STUDIES
S t a n i s l a v a N i k o l o v a - Recent methods for measuring the effects of “postponement of childbearing” on period fertility rates in the context of the observed low birth level
DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES AND STRUCTURES
S t a n k a J e k o v a – Spatial asymmetry in mortality by causes of death – theoretical and methodical problems
N i k o l a i T c e k o v - Trends in depopulation in rural communities in Bulgaria for 1946-2001
SOCIAL-DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF POPULATION
L y u b o m i r S t o y c h e v – Bulgaria’s Convicted Juvenile Offenders in Times of Transition: a Social-Demographic Profile
F e n y a D e k a l o – The Bulgarian schools abroad and the importance of the emigrantmedia in promoting of mother tongue tuition
M a r i a B e l c h e v a - Small and Medium Business Entrepreneurs
S t e f a n i y a B e k y a r o v a -Migration Intentions of Bulgarian Doctors After Bulgaria's Accession to the European Union
S h t e l i a n S h t e r i o n o v - Territorial Orientation of the Migration Movements of the Greek Population Inhabited Bulgarian Lands during 18th 19th centuries
D a n i e l a A n g e l o v a -The age and sex structure of the population inhabited Bulgarian Black Sea coast during the 19th Century
The age and sex structure of the population inhabited Bulgarian Black Sea coast during the 19th Century
The age and sex structure is one of the main aspects in studying the population. According the available source material for the Bulgarian lands under the Ottoman rule it can be reconstruct only one part of the age pyramid and there is very fragmentary data about the sexual structure.
The analyses allow determining that:
1. In the studying period dominate the young age structure. The observation is that in the end of the period the tendency is to grow the part of the middle and high age.
2. For the population of the southern settlements in the beginning of the 19th century is character sex structure in which dominates the females. In the end of the period is observing the opposite tendency.
Bulgaria’s Convicted Juvenile Offenders in Times of Transition: a Social-Demographic Profile
The article discusses a topical issue in contemporary Bulgaria: the crime among the underage offenders aged 14–17. National Statistical Institute data for a 17 year period is reconfigured, analyzed and then interpreted from the standpoints of sociology of delinquency and criminology. As a result a quantitative generalized profile of the juvenile offender is constructed and presented both in short and in detail.
The article also traces the structure and dynamics of the convicted underage offenders throughout the period. Using the correlation method of statistical analysis, the author offers a periodization of the transitional period. The periodization emerges on the basis of changing dynamics explained by the finding that the convicted criminal activity of underage and full age offenders is determined by different factors during the sub-periods. A number of hypothetical explanations, pending verification, are offered in relation to the changes in convicted criminal activity in Bulgaria. The periodization is exclusively based on data and statistical coefficients provided and estimated by the National Statistical Institute.
Furthermore, the article discusses the structure and dynamics of convicted underage offenders by a number of demographic and social attributes, e.g. sex, age, education, ethnicity, type of crime, family type, situation in the family, physical and mental health, and all types of inflicted punishments. As a result of all analyses and interpretations based on the available data it is generalized that there are approximately 190 underage (aged 14–17) offenders per year whom can be referred to as dangerous offenders active in Bulgaria.
Small and Medium Business Entrepreneurs
This article analyses the small and medium entrepreneurship in social-demographic and personal aspects. It aims at finding the answer of one very important question: what is the profile of that part of the capable of labour population, which during the adaptation process to the changed social-economic environment, succeeds to establish itself via a new form of labour realisation, which represent the entrepreneurship in Bulgaria.
The number of men is prevailing and its relative share is over 2 times more than the share of women – entrepreneurs from medium-sized enterprises. The entrepreneurs' level of education is significantly higher than this one of the employed persons. The prevailing part of entrepreneurs has upper secondary education, 41.7% - higher education.
The persons with lower level of education often undertake own business because of impossibility to find work i.e. this is some kind of finding a way out of the situation The entrepreneurship for persons with higher education is usually a motivated decision fir assurance of the personal and material satisfaction. More than half of the entrepreneurs have an opinion that the development of own business is more prestige than to make a career in other company or institution.
Further aspects of entrepreneurship in Bulgaria are also discussed.
Trends in depopulation in rural communities in Bulgaria for 1946-2001
problem of depopulation of Bulgarian villages has been always in the centre of
attention in public space.
The article focuses on changes in long-term (1946 – 2001) demographic trends in 49 rural communities. During the past century the birth rate has been continuously decreasing. The rates of mortality and outmigration amongst village population have been increasing. Since 1970 it has not been capable of securing a positive natural growth. Using techniques of the cluster analysis two trends of rural demographic development have been found. Two-thirds of rural communities, populated mainly by ethnic Bulgarians, have been experiencing high-speed depopulation. The rest of communities, populated mainly by ethnic and religion minorities, have been showing trends towards demographic stabilization.
Territorial Orientation of the Migration Movements of the Greek Population Inhabited Bulgarian Lands during 18th 19th centuries
Shtelian D. Shterionov
The problems of the directions, nature and specificity of the movements of the Greek population inhabited Bulgarian lands during the 18th and 19th centuries, have there place in studying the migrations. The question will be examined in many aspects. Consider with the available sources it will be presented only geographical and settlement orientation of the process.
The analyses allow determining that:
1. Tthe main direction of the migration movements of the Greek population during the Revival is from sought – sought-west to north – north-east.
2. The settlement orientation in the migration of the examined population depends on the old settlements of the migrants and of the nature professions. Determinant in the emigration is the direction from town to town and in the immigration – from village to town.
Migration Intentions of Bulgarian Doctors After Bulgaria's Accession to the European Union
The article presents some of the results of a study focusing on migration intentions of Bulgarian physicians after the accession of Bulgaria to the EU. The data-gathering tool is a short anonymous questionnaire. The results revealed significant levels of migration intentions among the studied group of physicians.
Recent methods for measuring the effects of “posponement of childbearing” on period fertility rates in the context of the observed low birth level
The postponement of childbearing has been one of the major characteristics of the fertility tendencies observed in the European countries at the end of XX th century. The theory that the fertility levels will stabilize in a natural way to the level necessary for simple reproduction will difficulty happen soon because of the incoming, hardly convertible and stable changes in the fertility behavior. The impact of these unfavorable trends will have significant effect on the future reproduction of the population and its demographic structures in the coming years.
In order to explore the impact of the changes in the mean age of childbearing on the fertility levels in certain calendar year, Bongaarts an Feeney (1998 and 2000) propose an alternative approach for adjustment of these „tempo distortions”.
Kohler and Philipov (2001 ă.), as well as Kohler and Ortega (2002 ă.) introduce additional extensions to the formula by Bongaarts an Feeney, which allow more precise adjusting, through elimination of the „variance effects” in addition to the “tempo effects”.
The Bulgarian schools abroad and the importance of the emigrant media in promoting of mother tongue tuition
There are 82 Bulgarian schools and courses in mother tongue and Bulgarian culture outside Bulgaria. About 20% of the Bulgarian children, living abroad go to Bulgarian schools. The tuition forms which they have chosen are not specified, but in most cases these are weekend courses lead by not qualified personnel.
The Bulgarian emigrant media consists of over 30 different means of mass communication, such as newspapers, radio broadcastings, local cable TV programs in Bulgarian, internet sites designed for our living abroad. One of the goals of the media is to facilitate the migrants and the Bulgarians, working for their living abroad to adapt to the new conditions, helping them in the same time to preserve their Bulgarian self-consciousness. Depending on the specific situation in the different countries this goal is achieved in two ways: either the media takes upon the functions of a school, or only promotes Bulgarian education abroad, controlling in the same time the quality they achieve and even make an attempt to get involved in solving some problems.
Spatial asymmetry in mortality by causes of death – theoretical and methodological problems
In the course of the work there is a presentation of a possible approach for analyzing the unevenness of the spatial mortality differences by death causes. There is a review of the major determinants of mortality and the methodological foundation of the mortality spatial asymmetry analysis according to the causes of death. There is a review of the logical and mathematical principles of the correspondence analysis that is adapted for mortality spatial asymmetry analysis by causes. An analysis is made of the sexual differentiation in the death-rate structure by causes for the 2000-2005 period in Bulgaria.